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Ðÿ”´ Ex Military Says 'War To End All Wars' Starts On This Date (Here's When) | Simon Hunt

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKEfSVVIi1o

TLDR Simon Hunt warns that renewed conflict with Iran could devastate oil infrastructure and widen into a global war, though he says an attack may be delayed while military preparations continue. He also predicts growing unrest and economic stress in Europe, rising inflation, and a major market correction after a possible year-end rally. Hunt views physical gold as long-term protection against war and financial risk, while forecasting a potential S&P 500 peak in early 2027 followed by a sharp decline.

Key Insights

Separate verified developments from forecasts and speculation

The discussion includes reported events, personal interpretations, and predictions about future conflict and markets, which should not be treated as equally certain. Before acting on claims about Iran, election outcomes, cyberattacks, or military logistics, check reliable sources and note when information is unconfirmed. Forecast dates and price targets are opinions, not guarantees. Keeping facts and speculation distinct helps you make more measured decisions.

Assess geopolitical risk through practical indicators, not headlines alone

Hunt argues that military preparations and diplomatic conditions may offer clues about conflict risk, while also acknowledging that timing can change quickly. For practical monitoring, follow credible reporting on negotiations, troop movements, logistics, and potential effects on energy infrastructure. Treat any single signal, including reported supply orders, as incomplete evidence rather than proof that war is imminent. Consider how disruption to oil production could affect energy prices and the wider economy.

Build resilience for market volatility and recession risk

The interview presents a scenario of a possible relief rally followed by a correction as recession pressures and credit-market risks grow. Rather than relying on a precise forecast for the S&P 500, review your investment time horizon, emergency savings, debt exposure, and ability to withstand losses. Diversification across asset types and regions can reduce reliance on one market outcome. Avoid making major portfolio changes solely because of a single interview or election result.

Understand the role and limits of physical gold

Hunt describes physical gold as a long-term store of security against inflation, war, and liquidity risks, not as a short-term trade. He cites central-bank buying and efforts to hold gold domestically as reasons for interest in the metal. Gold prices can still fall, and physical ownership may involve storage, insurance, and resale costs. If considering gold or silver, compare those trade-offs with your goals and overall portfolio rather than treating a stated buying zone as a guaranteed floor.

Prepare for inflation without assuming extreme forecasts will occur

The conversation warns that energy and food costs could renew inflation and push interest rates higher. You can prepare by reviewing household spending, maintaining a realistic cash buffer, and checking how higher borrowing costs would affect loans or planned purchases. Compare fixed and variable expenses and avoid taking on debt that depends on rates staying low. Double-digit inflation and Treasury yields are predictions in the discussion, not established outcomes.

Use political and economic scenarios to plan, not to predict with certainty

The speakers link possible election results to changes in foreign policy and market behavior, but political outcomes and their consequences remain uncertain. A practical approach is to identify how different scenarios could affect your work, savings, investments, or business, then decide in advance what steps would be appropriate. This scenario planning can reduce rushed decisions when news changes quickly. Revisit plans as reliable information develops instead of anchoring on a single forecast.

Be cautious with sponsored financial recommendations

The program includes a sponsored promotion encouraging viewers to consider gold and silver for retirement accounts. Treat promotional claims as marketing and independently verify fees, custody arrangements, liquidity, tax treatment, and any financial claims before investing. Compare products with lower-cost alternatives and consult a qualified, independent financial professional if needed. Never invest money you cannot afford to lose based only on a sponsorship or a predicted price target.

Questions & Answers

Why did Simon Hunt think the calm market reaction on U.S. midterm election day understated the risks involving Iran?

He said the risks of renewed conflict remained high despite flat markets. Iran reportedly wants at least $6 billion in returned funds and the blockade lifted before negotiations, demands he thought President Trump was unlikely to accept. Further fighting could devastate regional oil infrastructure, taking two to three years to repair under current conditions—or seven to ten years if more damage occurs.

When did Hunt think a major conflict involving Iran might happen?

He had previously considered an attack likely by the end of November, but said the risk remained high while the timing was more likely postponed. A security adviser he follows reportedly used military logistics as a leading indicator and pointed to the third or fourth quarter of the following year. Hunt cautioned that events were moving quickly and the forecast could change.

What did Hunt say about the possibility of Secretary of War Pete Hegsmith leaving after the midterms?

Hunt said Hegsmith’s departure could delay an attack while a successor became established, but would not necessarily prevent one.

What dangers did the speakers associate with a nuclear strike on Pickax Mountain?

They warned that fallout could spread across Pakistan and western India, draw Russia and China into a conflict, and establish a dangerous precedent for future nuclear use.

How did the speakers frame the Iran and Ukraine wars in the broader geopolitical picture?

They described them as part of a wider struggle between a unipolar and a multipolar world, which could eventually lead to World War III. One speaker predicted such a war might occur between 2029 and 2032.

Why did Hunt say central banks, particularly in Asia, were buying gold?

He said they wanted physical gold held in their own vaults rather than in America. He cited France’s recovery of its gold and Germany’s effort to retrieve gold held in the United States.

How did Hunt recommend thinking about physical gold, and what prices did he consider a buying zone?

He recommended treating physical gold as security against war, inflation, and liquidity risk—not as a short-term trade—even if the price fell to $3,500. He considered prices around $3,950–$3,970 a buying zone and had previously cited a floor near $3,800.

What did the speakers say about France’s economic choices and the future of the euro?

They said France faced a difficult choice between spending cuts that could trigger riots and leaving the euro, which they suggested could devalue a new franc by 40–50%. They argued that leaving could threaten the euro and fracture the European Union.

What were Hunt’s expectations for markets after the U.S. midterms?

He expected a year-end relief rally, followed by major market corrections as recession pressures built and the Federal Reserve allowed excesses in credit markets to unwind. He also said Trump losing both houses of Congress could make him more aggressive in foreign policy.

What was Hunt’s inflation and Treasury-yield outlook?

He forecast that energy and food costs would eventually bring inflation pressures back, potentially producing double-digit inflation and 10-year Treasury yields, followed by a major crash.

What were Hunt’s S&P 500 forecasts?

He projected a peak near 8,500 in early 2027, a decline to around 5,000 by the end of 2027, and a later peak just above 10,000 sometime between 2029 and 2032. He viewed that later peak as marking the end of a century-long bull market.

Summary of Timestamps

The host introduces Simon Hunt as markets remain mostly flat on U.S. midterm election day. Hunt argues that the calm reaction may understate the risks of renewed conflict with Iran.

Hunt says Iran reportedly wants at least $6 billion in returned funds and the blockade lifted before negotiations, conditions he believes President Trump is unlikely to accept. He warns that further fighting could severely damage regional oil infrastructure, with repairs taking two to three years—or seven to ten years if the damage worsens.

Discussing the timing of a possible attack, Hunt says the departure of Secretary of War Pete Hegsmith after the midterms could delay military action while a successor settles in, without necessarily preventing it. Hunt once expected an attack by late November but now sees the risk as high and the timing as more likely postponed.

Hunt describes military logistics—such as orders for food, blood, and warm-weather boots—as indicators that a security adviser tracks to anticipate conflict. Those signs reportedly point to the third or fourth quarter of next year for a major war, though Hunt stresses that events are moving quickly and any forecast could change.

The speakers caution that apparent diplomatic progress with Iran may be misleading, noting that Iran’s foreign minister denied a breakthrough and that the country may be alert to a surprise attack. They warn that a nuclear strike on Pickax Mountain could spread fallout across Pakistan and western India, involve Russia and China, and set a dangerous precedent.

Hunt expects any attack on Iran to involve both ground troops and air power, whether soon or after additional preparations. The speakers connect the Iran and Ukraine wars to a broader contest between a unipolar and multipolar world, with one speaker predicting that a wider world war could occur between 2029 and 2032.

The conversation briefly turns to cyberattacks, including an alleged hack of refrigeration systems at IKEA locations in Sweden and Lithuania. A sponsored segment then encourages viewers to diversify retirement savings beyond U.S. bonds and cash by considering gold and silver through Noble Gold.

The speakers argue that European unrest reflects deep discontent among young people who struggle to afford housing and start families. They suggest that immigration and food insecurity could add to the pressure, making domestic economic conditions an important factor behind the protests.

France’s economic choices are described as difficult: spending cuts could provoke riots, while leaving the euro and devaluing a new franc by 40–50% could destabilize the euro and fracture the European Union. The speakers also discuss claims of German influence over Poland and reject the idea that Russia intends to attack Europe, suggesting that war fears may distract from domestic issues.

The speakers mention grocery-store hacks, shutdowns, and false bomb threats on flights as troubling anomalies, while questioning whether Russia is responsible. They then discuss Hong Kong’s plan for a tokenized gold bar and China’s expanding gold infrastructure, including the possibility that Beijing may eventually announce that its currency is backed by gold held by households and institutions.

Hunt says central banks have increased gold purchases even during price declines, and describes prices near $3,950 as being in his stated buying zone, above a predicted floor of $3,800. He says Asian central banks want physical gold in their own vaults rather than in the United States, citing France’s recovery of its gold and Germany’s efforts to retrieve gold held in the U.S.

Hunt frames physical gold as protection against war, inflation, and liquidity risks—not as a short-term trade. He says he would still view gold as security even if its price fell to $3,500, and considers levels around $3,950–$3,970 a buying zone.

The host reviews JPMorgan’s estimated midterm scenarios: a 66% chance of a Democratic blue wave, 26% for a split Congress, 7% for a Republican red wave, and 1% for Republicans taking the House while Democrats retain the Senate. Hunt says the outcome matters because Trump could become more aggressive in foreign policy if he loses both chambers.

Hunt expects a year-end relief rally, followed by significant market corrections as recession pressures grow and the Federal Reserve allows excesses in credit markets to unwind. He also forecasts that renewed energy and food inflation could eventually push inflation and 10-year Treasury yields into double digits.

Hunt projects the S&P 500 could peak near 8,500 in early 2027, fall to around 5,000 by the end of that year, and later reach just above 10,000 sometime between 2029 and 2032. He associates the eventual crash and the end of what he views as a century-long bull market with the risk of another world war.

The discussion closes with the speakers’ promotional references: Hunt directs viewers to simon-hunt.com, while the host mentions Noble Gold and the Capital Cosm Substack.

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